NEW DELHI: India’s target of a phased increase in ethanol blending from 10% (E10) to 20% (E20) in a bid to decarbonise the transport sector may prove unsustainable, warned a new study released on Friday.
To meet or maintain the 20% ethanol blending target, India is likely to need imports, which contradicts the primary goals of improving energy security and promoting self-reliance, according to the study by Bengaluru-based Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP).India is already importing ethanol for industrial purposes, with domestically produced ethanol being used for fuel blending, the report said.
Instead, continuing with 10% ethanol blending (E10) would be beneficial, as it avoids trade-offs between food and fuel, and existing vehicles and infrastructure are already E10-compliant. Any surplus ethanol could be used for jet fuel production, the report suggested.
The study, titled ‘Decarbonising India’s Transport Sector: Navigating Trade-offs of Biofuel Use and Electrification,’ used Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based multipliers models to explore the natural resource and macroeconomic implications of biofuel use and electrification, aiming to develop a sustainable decarbonisation strategy for the transport sector.
On the issue of the additional ethanol required for an E20 scenario, the study recommended a 50-50 combination of both maize and sugarcane. However, it cautioned against dropping sugarcane, as maize has a lower water footprint but requires the same amount of water per litre of ethanol produced as sugarcane.
To meet the growing demand for ethanol, the study indicated that an additional 3.5 million hectares (Mha) of land would need to be brought under sugarcane cultivation by 2050, leading to an annual additional water demand of 60 billion cubic metres (BCM).
The study also highlighted potential breakthroughs in second-generation (2G) ethanol or other advanced technologies that sustainably use crop residues and other waste biomass, which could contribute to a sustainable ethanol supply. However, biomass supply chain challenges may limit this progress.
Regarding fleet electrification, the study referred to the International Energy Agency’s estimate of global mineral demand. It said that India would require up to 21% of the global demand for copper and more than 5% of the demand for lithium.
The study recommended promoting battery recycling, shifting consumer preferences toward smaller vehicles (reducing battery capacity), improving battery chemistries such as increasing the share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, or even a technological shift away from lithium-ion chemistries altogether by 2070 to address critical mineral demand challenges for India’s electrification journey in the transport sector.
However, the study emphasised that both ethanol blending and transport electrification would lead to significant economic benefits.
While ethanol blending boosts rural employment, electrification drives overall economic growth by benefiting industries like manufacturing, power generation, and iron and steel. For every rupee of electric vehicles (EVs) sold, the GDP increases by ₹12.7, whereas for every rupee of 20% ethanol-blended petrol sold, the GDP increases by ₹3.72. Electrification would also create more than 150 million additional jobs, the study further said.
